Safeskies to Discuss Rising World Air Accident Trend
Concerns over an apparent halt or reversal of long term airline safety improvement trends have heightened world-wide interest in new solutions. The trend will be a core topic at the Safeskies Australia International Aviation Safety Conference to be held in Canberra in October, says Safeskies chairman David Forsyth.
“The latest statistics from several authoritative sources all indicate that airline safety is slipping backwards to fatality levels not seen since the 1990s or 1980s,” he said.
“This has heightened international interest in our non-profit conference: ‘Managing Aviation Safety in a Changing Environment’.
“In the latest development, Air France is sending its director of safety, Captain Bertrand de Courville as a speaker at the October 6-8 conference. He joins senior speaker from the International Civil Aviation Organisation and other major world aviation organisations.”
Local speakers will include Qantas CEO Alan Joyce and the heads of other airlines, Chief of Air Force AM Mark Binskin and other defence aviation chiefs, and the new Civil Aviation Safety Authority Director of Aviation Safety, John McCormick.
Mr Forsyth said a spate of airline accidents in recent weeks was concerning safety organisations because it further indicated that a steady downward trend in airline accidents and deaths over recent decades has stopped and the trend may be moving upwards.
“Statistics from ICAO, Flight Safety Foundation, Flight International and others vary slightly depending on the criteria for defining serious accidents, but all show a similar worrying trend – over the past five years, the previous steady improvement in airline safety performance since the 1980s has plateaued or could be slipping into reverse,” he said.
While some sources say the number of large aircraft accidents in the first six months of 2009, currently counted at about 13, is down on the average of 14.8 for the first six months of the past decade, the number of fatalities for a similar period is well up from 344 to more than 550 (counting the July Iran crash).
Accidents with major death tolls so far this year include all 228 aboard the Air France jet that disappeared over the Atlantic, 152 on the Yemenia accident in the Comoros and a reported 168 in the July crash in Iran.
Mr Forsyth said: “If that rate continues, there could be 20 or more crashes this year, the most since 24 jets crashed in 1999. Both 2007 and 2008, with 17 and 19 major crashes respectively, had crash totals higher than their preceding years.
“Even when viewed against steadily increasing airline traffic and a high overall airline safety rate, these figures are a cause for real concern.
“Airlines safety improved rapidly after WWII, particularly with the arrival of jet aircraft. It continued to improve at a slower rate in the 1980s with the introduction of automated systems like Terrain Avoidance Warning and Collision Avoidance systems.
“The third world has seen a slower rate of improvement in fatality and accident rates than most developed countries and it appears that, despite the blacklisting of some countries, the situation may be getting worse in some areas.”
Safeskies Australia is an independent, not for profit organisation that promotes continuing improvement in aviation safety by fostering innovation and exchange of information and views between civil and military aviation operators, regulators, governments and academia.
Between conferences, Safeskies cultivates informal and formal dialog between all relevant commercial and government sectors on many issues and developments bearing on aviation safety.
Safeskies’ role as an independent facilitator in aviation safety is demonstrated by the substantial support it receives from all sectors of aviation: airlines and other operators, airports, service providers, the Australian Defence Forces, and government departments and instrumentalities.
The truth is that Aviation has become so expensive in all forms, from GA right through to the Airlines.
Aviation business owners, small and large, clearly cannot cope with the cost of keeping aircraft flying. This reflects on the decrease we are seeing in safety.
Something has to give and unfortunately, it appears that maintenance and pilot training are just a few.
World aviation government bodies need to step in and do something. And by that, I don’t mean step in and increase, introduce fees and legislation etc etc which would tighten the noose even more.